An update using essentially the same daily model as before. I have included the Australian data (pink triangles). To reiterate, I adjust my Social Distancing Factor to match the Australian data, and extrapolate from the last data point. The bad news. I now determine the base rate as ~6, highly infectious. The good news. If …
Author Archives: alanrwilson
Corvid-19 Model Update
Since the situation with CV-19 is chancing so fast I have updated my model to a daily calculation. I have also have changed the parameters. For Australian data I assume the infection lasts for 9 days and until March 25th (which corresponds to day 25 in the graphs) little was being done. After that I …
Corona Virus Model
Hey, I’m a physicist (Dr Alan Wilson since 1982). What do physicists do? Try to understand the world. One way to do that, make models. My model is quite simple but comparing its results to the number of new cases in the Australian 2019 flu season it gives the peak at 70,000 within ~10 days …
April Approaches
We live in interesting times, some of the interest I, we, could all do without. Anyway … more writing time. Going ‘gang busters’ on my Contemporary SF which means the editing of ‘Awakening’ (Anita #4) and ‘Raven’ have fallen by the wayside. CV-19 has also been a distraction. It feels Claire North like to me, …
Two New Novels
Converted and uploaded today. ‘Five Words’, a Contemporary Fiction novel and a ‘companion’ to ‘Sarah’. A what if for ‘Sarah’ if ‘The Day That Wasn’t’ was ‘The Day That Was’. Can be read as stand alone but more interesting if the allusions to ‘Sarah’ are appreciated. Second upload is ‘Betrayals’, the third book in the …
I have been distracted
First it was a novel idea for coordinating urban solar PV systems into one mega generator which I am ‘shopping around’, then I decided to learn Python, one of the ‘in favour’ programming languages. Useless to do this without a goal so I set myself the task of writing an RPG (role playing game) Assistant …
Half Price
Just signed into the half price sale with Smashwords from Dec 25 to Jan 1 for my 3 published novels. Checkout my Smashwords profile.
‘Betrayals’ Released Plus Other Progress
‘Betrayals’, Book 2 in the Anita Histories, uploaded to Smashwords 2 days ago and now accepted for Premium Category which means it will be in retailers now (although I prefer if people purchase my ebooks through Smashwords). (Link to Betrayals in Smashwords) The third book is well on the way, going through my editing process. …
Sarah Published
Uploaded ‘Sarah’ 17 October 2019. Hopefully it will pass the Smashwords formatting criteria and be circulated to their distributors even though I prefer purchases from Smashwords because it gives the author a higher royalty – tell your friends. ‘Eagles’ is still in the ‘mill’ for publication hopefully within the next few weeks. While do all …
Book 2 Update
Book 2 maybe delayed. My volunteer editor (many thanks John) has a life other than finding the typos etc. in my books. Also discovered I need to do some writing, not just editing work. ‘Sarah’ might be out first – different person reviewing it.
Alan R Wilson 