Corvid-19 Model Update

Since the situation with CV-19 is chancing so fast I have updated my model to a daily calculation. I have also have changed the parameters. For Australian data I assume the infection lasts for 9 days and until March 25th (which corresponds to day 25 in the graphs) little was being done. After that I allow for 3/4 of the cases to be detected and isolated after 4 days, with 1/4 asymptomatic and in the community (1/2, 1/2 for March 26). I then alter the Social Distancing Factor (SDF) to roughly match the Australian data, results for New Cases and SDF below. The bumps up, or surges, in New Cases and the SDF occur over 4-6 days after a Friday. With an incubation time of ~4 days this correlates with people being more ‘friendly’ on Friday-Sunday. Stop it, you are not helping! For the Australian data, extrapolating into the future gives me <1 case by May 10, which seems rather optimistic. But, if this is indeed the case, we should keep on doing what we are doing and not relax prematurely.

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