An update using essentially the same daily model as before. I have included the Australian data (pink triangles). To reiterate, I adjust my Social Distancing Factor to match the Australian data, and extrapolate from the last data point.
The bad news. I now determine the base rate as ~6, highly infectious.
The good news. If we keep doing what we are doing then we will reach less than 1 infection/day in May. In the first 2 graphs this point is the orange cross. However, we can not relax relax until there are no infections at all over the previous incubation and infectious time (green cross, the start of June). This is illustrated in the 2nd 2 graphs which shows what happens if we go back to normal on orange cross day.
very good . I’ve given up modelling myself – spending too much time learning japanese kanji instead, Have been reading about SEIR models on the wolfram community page. Enrique Garcia Moreno E., University of Helsinki is doing fitting to different countries data and getting difference forces of infection for each country – italy 1.5; finland 2.5; china 4; spain 3.
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