Author Archives: alanrwilson

Keeps on going here in Victoria. Looks like we have finally turned the corner, let’s hope we all grit our collective teeth and keep on track to get it down to 0 new cases. Will not be quick, mid December if we are determined. Below graph is for 100’s of new cases and 0.1 increments […]

The virus has got away from us her in Victoria, Australia. A couple of slip ups and messaging which many, it appears, interpreted as ‘It’s all done’. Nothing further from the truth. The graphs below show it all started to go wrong on June 7 and the infection rate rose above 1 on June 9. […]

Hopefully my last update since Australia is doing really well and provided the politicians and we (the public) do not ‘drop the ball’ we are on the way out. The new case numbers are now becoming ‘noisy’ (which accounts for the large changes in infection rate) and can mostly be tracked to known causes. In […]

An update using essentially the same daily model as before. I have included the Australian data (pink triangles). To reiterate, I adjust my Social Distancing Factor to match the Australian data, and extrapolate from the last data point. The bad news. I now determine the base rate as ~6, highly infectious. The good news. If […]

Since the situation with CV-19 is chancing so fast I have updated my model to a daily calculation. I have also have changed the parameters. For Australian data I assume the infection lasts for 9 days and until March 25th (which corresponds to day 25 in the graphs) little was being done. After that I […]

Hey, I’m a physicist (Dr Alan Wilson since 1982). What do physicists do? Try to understand the world. One way to do that, make models. My model is quite simple but comparing its results to the number of new cases in the Australian 2019 flu season it gives the peak at 70,000 within ~10 days […]

We live in interesting times, some of the interest I, we, could all do without. Anyway … more writing time. Going ‘gang busters’ on my Contemporary SF which means the editing of ‘Awakening’ (Anita #4) and ‘Raven’ have fallen by the wayside. CV-19 has also been a distraction. It feels Claire North like to me, […]

Converted and uploaded today. ‘Five Words’, a Contemporary Fiction novel and a ‘companion’ to ‘Sarah’. A what if for ‘Sarah’ if ‘The Day That Wasn’t’ was ‘The Day That Was’. Can be read as stand alone but more interesting if the allusions to ‘Sarah’ are appreciated. Second upload is ‘Betrayals’, the third book in the […]

First it was a novel idea for coordinating urban solar PV systems into one mega generator which I am ‘shopping around’, then I decided to learn Python, one of the ‘in favour’ programming languages. Useless to do this without a goal so I set myself the task of writing an RPG (role playing game) Assistant […]